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Growing demand across the Gulf and Africa, and we are in the middle of it.

The GCC, the UAE, Nigeria, Niger, West Africa and Africa as a whole: what each market uses, makes, imports and exports, and where demand is heading.

Africa's refined-product demand, today to 2050
4 to 6+ m b/d
Africa's Gas demand, 2026 to 2050
188 to ~395 bcm
People in Africa by 2050, 63% of world population growth
2.4 billion
GCC population by 2050, from 61.2 million
83.6 million
The world

Global demand is still growing, and our customers are worldwide.

The world is still using more energy. The United Nations expects the global population to grow from 8.2 billion in 2024 to a peak of about 10.3 billion in the 2080s, and OPEC expects world Oil demand to reach about 113 million barrels a day by 2030 and 123 million by 2050. We trade refined products and petrochemicals for buyers around the world, so we follow global demand as closely as we follow our home markets.

World Oil demand

Million barrels a day (OPEC World Oil Outlook).

  • 2030: about 113
  • 2050: about 123

OPEC World Oil Outlook 2025

The GCC

The world's energy supplier, and a growing market of its own.

The Gulf states produce a large share of the world's Oil and LNG, and their own populations and economies are growing too. Saudi Arabia produced about 9.5 million barrels a day of crude in 2025. Qatar is expanding LNG capacity from 77 to 142 million tonnes a year by the early 2030s. Our UAE office looks after the GCC market.

GCC population

Millions of people.

  • End-2024: 61.2
  • 2050 projected: 83.6

GCC-Stat; UN projection

Qatar LNG capacity

Million tonnes a year.

  • Today: 77
  • Early 2030s: 142

GECF, via Gulf Times, March 2025

The UAE

A major exporter of crude and refined products, and a Gas importer.

The UAE produced about 3.8 million barrels a day of crude in 2025 and exported about 3.2 million. It exports far more refined product than it imports, and it imports Gas, mainly from Qatar, while building toward Gas self-sufficiency by 2030. Crude capacity of 4.85 million barrels a day is heading to 5 million in 2027.

UAE: Oil

Million barrels a day, 2024 and 2025 (US EIA).

  • Crude produced, 2025: 3.8
  • Crude exported, 2025: 3.2
  • Refined products exported, average: 1.9
  • Refined products imported, average: 1.0
  • Used at home, 2024: 0.88

US EIA. Product trade is the 2019-25 average; about 46% of exports are LPG or naphtha

UAE: Gas

Billion cubic metres a year, average 2015 to 2024 (US EIA).

  • Used at home: 68
  • Produced: 57
  • Imported, mainly from Qatar: 20
  • Exported as LNG, Das Island: 7.5

US EIA; conversions from trillion and billion cubic feet are ours

Nigeria

A growing refining base, with trade in both directions.

The Dangote refinery has a capacity of 650,000 barrels a day, and a second unit is planned. Seaborne product imports fell from nearly 400,000 barrels a day in 2023 to under 130,000 in the second quarter of 2026. Gas reserves are 215 tcf and Gas demand is expected to reach about 15 billion cubic feet a day by 2030. NUPRC awarded 37 of 50 blocks in its 2025 licensing round, and the population is heading for about 359 million by 2050.

Dangote refinery capacity

Thousand barrels a day.

  • Today: 650
  • Planned second unit, 2028: +750

US Energy Information Administration

Nigeria's seaborne fuel imports

Thousand barrels a day.

  • 2023: nearly 400
  • Q2 2026: under 130

US Energy Information Administration

Nigeria: petrol supply

Million litres a day, August 2026 (NMDPRA).

  • Made by Dangote, sold at home: 35.9
  • Imported: 14.6
  • Exported by Dangote: 9.7

NMDPRA, via Nairametrics, 24 September 2026

Niger

Crude goes out, fuel comes in.

Niger produces about 110,000 barrels a day of crude and exports most of it through the Niger–Benin pipeline, about 2,000 km long. Niger uses about 3.2 million litres of Oil products a day, and its own refinery supplies only part of that, so Niger imports refined products, mainly from Nigeria. Fuel demand has grown sharply, electricity access is under 20%, and the population of 28.8 million, growing 3.2% a year, is heading for over 50 million by 2050.

Niger: crude Oil and refining

Barrels a day.

  • Crude produced at Agadem, about: 110,000
  • Left for export, about: 90,000
  • Soraz refinery capacity: 20,000

Reuters via CNBC Africa, October 2025; Ecofin. Export figure is production minus refinery feed

Niger: fuel demand

Million litres a day, all Oil products.

  • Today, about: 3.2
  • In 10 years, about: 4.3
  • In 15 years, about: 5.0

Indicative market estimates, 2026

Niger pipeline tariff cut

US dollars a barrel on the Niger–Benin pipeline.

  • Before MoUs: $27
  • After May 2026 MoUs: $15

AllAfrica, June 2026

West Africa

A region importing less and building its own refining.

West Africa's population is projected to reach about 735 million by 2050. Regional product imports have fallen as Dangote exports record volumes to neighbours, and countries are building their own capacity. In Ghana, the Tema Oil Refinery restarted in December 2025 and the new Sentuo refinery is expanding from 40,000 to 100,000 barrels a day, while the government pushes LPG toward half of the cooking-fuel market by 2030. Ghana's population is heading for about 50.6 million by 2050 and Togo's for about 15.6 million.

West Africa: fuel imports and exports

Barrels a day, S&P Global via Ecofin.

  • Refined exports by Dangote, record: 372,000
  • West African product imports, before: 997,000
  • West African product imports, after: 765,000

S&P Global Commodity Insights, via Ecofin. The period labels in the source are unclear

Ghana: refining

Barrels a day.

  • Tema Oil Refinery, restarted Dec 2025: 28,000
  • Tema, rated capacity: 45,000
  • Sentuo, phase 1: 40,000
  • Sentuo with phase 2: 100,000

Graphic Online; GNA, June 2026

Ghana: LPG

LPG use in 2024, million litres, and the national target.

  • LPG consumed, 2024: 340
  • Target: LPG share of cooking fuel, 2030: 50%

National Petroleum Authority, via Africa Energy Chamber

Population in 2050

Millions of people (UN projection, medium variant).

  • Nigeria: 359 m
  • Niger: 52.5 m
  • Ghana: 50.6 m
  • Togo: 15.6 m

UN World Population Prospects 2024

Africa

The fastest-growing energy market in the world.

Africa has about 18% of the world's people but uses under 5% of its Oil products. Population is heading for 2.4 billion by 2050, and refined-product demand from about 4 to over 6 million barrels a day. Gas demand is growing about 3% a year, the fastest in the world, and Africa already produces more Gas than it uses.

Africa's refined-product demand

Million barrels a day (OPEC outlook, via Africa Energy Chamber).

  • Today: about 4
  • 2050 projected: over 6

Africa Energy Chamber, citing OPEC World Oil Outlook. Latest published figure is for 2024

Africa's Gas demand

Billion cubic metres a year (GECF).

  • 2026 projected: 188
  • 2050 projected: about 395

GECF Annual Gas Market Report 2026 (2026); GECF Global Gas Outlook, 2022 edition (2050)

Africa: Gas made and used

Billion cubic metres, 2025 (GECF).

  • Produced: 262
  • Used in Africa: 185

GECF Annual Gas Market Report 2026. Africa produces more Gas than it uses

What it means for MEA

Demand is coming. Owning the supply chain is how we meet it.

More people, more vehicles, more cooking and more power mean more fuel from the Gulf to Africa. As local refining grows, the winners will be those who control storage, trucks and stations close to the customer. That is why our vision is to own assets across Oil and Gas in Africa and not to be just a trading house.

  • Retail

    Up to 200 stations in Nigeria within three years and over 50 in Niger.

  • Storage

    Tanks across Niger, Nigeria and Africa.

  • Gas

    LPG, LNG, CNG and L-CNG at selected stations.

  • Trade

    Any parcel from 1,000 to 100,000 MT through hubs in Nigeria, Niger, Ghana, the UAE and Togo.

Want to supply or buy across these markets?

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